A total of 106,000 Bitcoin Futures and Options (BTC) contracts have expired today, and this arouses investor curiosity about how BTC prices react, which will end and so on.
The Bears did not expect the most recent increase to be $ 11,000, especially after two months of lateral trading activity, and a 52% increase in total open interest in Bitcoin futures in July indicates that sellers are overconfident or mostly use it for hedging and arbitrage opportunities.
The above data shows open interest in futures exceeding $ 5.2 billion, only 3% shy to the highest historical level in mid-February. While this figure sounds awful, the truth is less than $ 500 million has expired today.
Bitcoin options are a little more worrying as they ended up 32% from the day before the $ 2.1 billion open interest rate. Unlike the futures market, there is no significant interest in trading options on the last trading day.
The choice is the winner who takes all the goods on the market, because those who drown under water are considered worthless. With regard to the unfinished $ 1.4 billion open interest today, the big question is knowing how bullish / bearded the position is.
Futures open interest without interruption after earning 18%
The average leverage usage on BitMEX exceeds 20 times, which means that 10% movement should be enough to dissolve 60% of traders due to insufficient margin that bears their risk.
The chart above represents just $ 115 million in purchase eligibility on July 27 despite a 12% price increase, showing that these sellers have an unusually high margin. This is indeed an indication of an increase, as most sellers in future contracts appear to have been hedged.
The options market is still up
The Bitcoin option opens the interest expiration
Bitcoin options open options declined by $ 690 million today, leaving 60% of the remaining $ 1.4 billion as of August and September. Most importantly, one must understand the impact on the buy / sell ratio. This scale provides an excellent measure of the confidence of professional traders.
According to the chart above, the buy / sell ratio is 63% as of July 30, before it expires. This indicates that the open (bearish) interest is 37% smaller than the bullish (bullish) option. Preliminary data show that the index is currently at 69%. Despite remaining in ascending territory, open interest in the remaining calendars shows less optimism.
The end result is likely to be neutral
The futures market is naturally more balanced because long positions and pants have the same exposure all the time. Looking at recent permanent liquidation activities, one can conclude that most sellers are fully covered. About $ 500 million has expired today, that’s less than 10% of all open interest.
Currently, the BTC options market seems to prefer price increases, and as we mentioned earlier, the recent rise in the price of bitcoin (BTC) has raised a lot.
Investors should monitor options carefully with a 25% delta and contango deviation index, as previously mentioned by Cointelegraph. Each of these indicators indicates whether there is a possibility of ascending activity.