Bitcoin (BTC) price remains flat below $22,000 as the continuing impact of the August 19th sale at $25,200 is still being felt across the market.
According to analysts from Glassnode, the on-chain monitoring resource, the BTC click at $25,000 was followed by a “distribution” as profit traders and short-term owners sold out with price facing trendline resistance after 23 consecutive days of uptrend that saw BTC trading above the price. The Inquisitor ($21,700).
Total bitcoin inflows and outflows for all exchanges (in USD). Source: glassnode
The company also noted that a measure of “total inflows and outflows to all exchanges” shows exchange inflows at multi-year lows and back to “late 2020” levels, reflecting a “general lack of speculative interest.”
From a higher time frame perspective, the current Bitcoin price action is simply a continuation of its roughly three-month chopping block in the $18,500 to $22,000 range, but the real damper on sentiment is the ongoing non-crypto-related concerns in the US and global economy.
On August 25, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins, and from this, the audience will learn more about the Federal Reserve’s perspective on the US economy, its plans for future interest rate hikes, whether the inflation target is still at 2% and whether the Fed believes the US and the global economy stagnant. The anticipation over the symposium has clearly left investors in a state of jitters, and these nervous nerves have surfaced in the S&P 500, DJI, and crypto markets this week.
According to Serhii Zhdanov, CEO of crypto exchange EXMO:
“There seems to be no single driver of the recent decline. Global crises are continuing, and it is not certain where the bottom lies. Inflation is forcing people to dump their investments to get cash for daily expenses. In many countries, the total amount of credit card debt is breaking new record highs. Recent data shows that Covid has not gone away and geopolitical tensions are adding fuel to the global market downturn.”
The ether runs to the beat of its own drum
On the other hand, Ether (ETH) appears to be showing some bullish hope from a technical analysis point of view. Last week, the asset was patched along with BTC and took some hits regarding centralization concerns after the Office of Foreign Assets Control, or Office of Foreign Assets Control, imposed sanctions on Tornado Cash and the crypto community became fearful of the potential consequences of the proof-of-stake transition, making the network (and the largest ETH providers) are subject to censorship and regulation.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Overall, the bullish “consolidation” narrative remains in place and the big cup and handle pattern seen on Ether’s daily time frame, as well as a bounce off the $1500 level is enough to support traders’ dreams of ETH price moving into the $2500-$2900 range.
Ethereum is similarly looking great on its ETH/BTC pair, which bounced off support in the 0.073 BTC range.
On-chain MVRV data indicates an undervalued Bitcoin
@big_smokey1 also mentioned that “stocks and cryptocurrencies are [clearly] at risk” as Jackson Hole approaches and in terms of price action, this is likely to emerge as continued resistance at the long-term downtrend line for bitcoin until it is enough catalyst for a change in trend to emerge.
Related: What broke the crypto relief rally? Find out now in the Market Report
At the moment, the short-term price outlook for Bitcoin is less than optimistic, but Jarvis Labs resident analyst JJ has identified a key on-chain metric indicating that BTC is trading in buy territory for generations.
Price vs MVRV difference for Bitcoin. Source: Jarvis Labs
According to JJ, the Bitcoin MVRV (Market Capitalization vs. Realized Capital) Index is printing a “very low” reading.
Does this mean that investors should go out and put every last penny into BTC? Probably not, but as the MVRV chart above shows, the average dollar cost of BTC when on-chain and technical metrics bottomed out proved to be a profitable strategy in the last three bull markets.
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