Bitcoin (BTC), which reached a new high of $ 67,000 last week, has the potential to reach $ 100,000 by the end of this year.
PlanB, the creator of the popular Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, described the decline in the price of Bitcoin from the $ 60,000 level as the “second stage” of what looked like a long-term beef market.
In doing so, he quoted an analyst aka S2F, who expects Bitcoin to continue its ascent, reaching between $ 100,000 and $ 135,000 by the end of the year.
The price decline model insists that the value of bitcoins will continue to rise to at least $ 288,000 per token due to the “halving”, an event that occurs every four years and halves the release rate of BTC compared to the supply ceiling of 21 million.
Bitcoin after halving in 2012, 2016 and 2020. Source: PlanB
It is noteworthy that so far Bitcoin has undergone three halves: in 2012, 2016 and 2020.
Each event reduced the rate at which a new cryptocurrency was offered by 50%, followed by a significant increase in the price of bitcoin. For example, the first and second cuts doubled the price of BTC by more than 10,000% and 2,960%, respectively.
The third halving led the price to rise from $ 8,787 to $ 66,999, an increase of 667.50%. So far, S2F has pretty accurately predicted the price of Bitcoin, as shown in the chart below, which gives bulls high hopes that Bitcoin’s rally after a half cut will exceed $ 100,000.
Bitcoin S2F as of October 26th. Source: PlanB
Earlier this year, PlanB noted that bitcoin will reach $ 98,000 by November and $ 135,000 by December, adding that the only thing that can stop the cryptocurrency from reaching six digits is the unsupervised black swan case. Market the last decade.
80% fail later
Despite forecasts for higher prices, Bitcoin is still facing major adjustments. PlanB believes the next mistake could wipe out at least 80% of Bitcoin’s market value, based on the same S2F model.
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“Everyone hopes that the superbike or ‘hyperbitcoinization’ starts now, and that we do not have a big crash after the next highlights at all,” the analyst told the Unchained podcast.
“As much as I hope it is true, we will not see this accident again, I think we will see it. […] I think we will manage greed right now and fear later, and see another 80% minus after we have crossed hundreds of thousands of dollars. ”
Daily BTC / USD price chart. Source: TradingView
But not everyone thinks that the next correction will be as dramatic as the previous one. Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, said in mid-October that the next fall in the bitcoin price would be below 80%, marking a steady decline in seller sentiment after each halving.
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of around $ 67,000 last week after rising 53% in October. But new highs spurred trading profits from traders, leading to a re-testing of the $ 60,000 support level.