Bitcoin (BTC) failed to overcome the so-called September curse as the price fell just over 7% during the month, despite a sharp improvement shortly before the end. However, it looks like Bitcoin will return in October, a month that is known to lead to sharp bullish reversals.
Bybt data shows that Bitcoin closed October in profit most of the time since 2013 – with a success rate of over 77%. The cryptocurrency is up 28% last year to levels above $ 13,500 after the end of September of around $ 10,800 after falling around 7.5%.
Bitcoin monthly earnings since 2013. Source: Bybt.
Similarly, Bitcoin is up by more than 10% at the end of October 2019, despite a decline of about 14% in the previous month. This made September a month of sales for traders, with seven out of nine losses since 2013.
In contrast, October presented itself as a period of low buying, indicating that traders could finally pump the Bitcoin price higher by 31 October.
The October fractal appears despite alarming signs of aggressive repression from China and a tightening of the US regulatory position in relation to the crypto sector.
In addition, the outlook for the Federal Reserve to cover its $ 120 billion-a-month loan program by the end of this year appears to have limited the optimistic outlook for bitcoin. Weak monetary policy, coupled with almost zero interest rates from the US Federal Reserve, played a major role in pushing the bitcoin price from below $ 4,000 in March 2020 to almost $ 65,000 by April 2021.
However, despite short-term setbacks, a number of leading indicators show that investors still want to be open to the fast-growing cryptocurrency area.
CryptoCompare, a cryptographic data tracking service, indicated in the report that volumes related to digital assets investment products rose 9.6% in September. Meanwhile, weekly product flows increased to $ 69.7 million, the highest level since May 2021.
“Bitcoin-based products received the highest level of inflow of any asset, averaging $ 31.2 million per week,” writes CryptoCompare, adding that “there may be an upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2021.”
Average weekly net inflow in time for September. Source: CryptoCompare
EMA fractal for 20 weeks
Technical indicators also pointed to a bullish session against Bitcoin as it formed a base of around $ 40,000 before closing in September, restoring key levels of resistance as temporary support. This included a 21-week exponential moving average defined for the skewness (21-week exponential moving average).
As Cointelegraph previously reported, the probability of Bitcoin continuing to fall by 78% increases when it falls below the 21-week moving average. On September 27, the cryptocurrency fell during the green wave (shown in the chart below), but regained support when it entered the October session.
The weekly BTC / USD price chart shows that the bulls are focusing on the 20-week exponential moving average. Source: TradingView
A move above the moving average of 20 weeks, combined with higher trading volumes, has historically caused bitcoin to explode. As a result, if the fractal repeats itself, the BTC price may rise to a new high in recent weeks.
bull banner outburst
Another technical indicator that predicts a bullish outcome for Bitcoin is the bullish pennant.
RELATED: Analyst closes Bitcoin monthly for two consecutive months – October target is $ 63,000
In detail, the price of BTC has consolidated within two converging trend lines after an increase of 500 percent.
Traditional analysts view these sideways movements as a sign of continued growth. In this way, they predict that the price will break the pattern’s upper trend line and increase with the length of the previous uptrend, called the flagpole.
The weekly bitcoin price chart has a bullish pennant structure. Source: TradingView
As a result, Bitcoin’s least resistance path appears to be leading to a rally, with a potential breakout move aimed at getting the price close to $ 100,000 (the flagpole maximum is around $ 50,000).