Bitcoin (BTC) recent rally has finally broken through and reached all-time widely expected highs. As September continues and expectations are high for Optober, many analysts are increasingly confident that the year will be the same as 2017.
In fact, a recent tweet from crypto analyst TechDev shows just how close the 2021 price chart is to 2017, and it’s strikingly close.
But can the upward trajectory remain that simple?
Some evidence points to similar patterns between the two cycles. First, the RSI, which traders use to identify overbought and oversold markets, follows the same path as in 2017. In 2013 and 2017, each cycle showed two peaks, so if events follow its course, we still have a second peak. gathering.
According to TechDev’s ambitious predictions, a prize of 200,000 BTC is “programmed.” Korean trader Mignolet also expressed optimism and said in early October that the drop in volumes from spot markets to derivatives is a positive sign for the market. Meanwhile, in September, some were confident that BTC would reach $100,000 even before the latest records.
Chain analyst Glassnode recently published an overview of long-term hodling patterns, lending more credence to the arguments for the upcoming new high. The results show that coins held for longer than a statistically significant 155-day period only start entering the markets when prices exceed the previous record high. Patterns in the series are also currently showing an accumulation trend.
Simply put, long-term owners ensure that demand for BTC exceeds supply.
But not everyone agrees that history repeats itself. When asked if he sees 2021 as a mirror of 2017, Matty Greenspan, founder and CEO of Quantum Economics, told Cointelegraph, “Not at all,” adding:
“2017 started 2017 with Bitcoin surpassing $1,000 per coin and growing steadily over the year, constantly breaking new highs, a rally that culminated in December. This year we’ve seen massive mania at the start of the year and then a slow continuation of that momentum.”
To support this view, other indicators show a more hesitant correlation. In 2017, the dominance of BTC declined sharply during the first half of the year and then increased, breaking the $20,000 resistance. In early 2021, a similar picture emerged and the dominance has only increased since September. However, the direction of the movement is still clearly bullish.
The same can be said for active titles, which at this time in 2017 were on an almost vertical upward trajectory. But while the upside is more pronounced here than BTC’s dominance, it is still on a weaker slope.
Could 2021 be less crazy for retail investors than 2017?
It seems likely. For example, net transfers to and from exchanges bear some resemblance to the most recent bullish patterns. But in general, markets are more measured.
Micah Pinolill, co-founder and CEO of Nodle’s Internet of Things, notes that there are macro differences from 2017 to the present that could explain these structural differences. Speaking to Cointelegraph, he said the situation is quite different:
The Covid crisis has hit the economies of many of our countries, and the amount of money central banks are paying to support our economies has reached new heights. Inflation is increasing, so Bitcoin is a safe position to defend against what is happening. ”
So what can you expect from BTC?
Regardless of whether the present reflects the past in all its glory, analysts have always spoken positively about the price of bitcoin, even before this week’s impressive price action.
TechDev’s forecast of $200,000 came in at the top of the forecast, while analyst Philbfilb set prices at $72,000 by November.
Then there is the consistently trusted PlanB. The creator of the stock-flow model for bitcoin has given closing prices for the past two months to a fraction of a percentage point and forecast an October close at $63,000 and $98,000 in November. He also said that BTC should reach $135,000 by December, not based on his famous stock allocation model as he points out. According to him, if it were 100% accurate, BTC would have already reached the $100,000 mark.
Instead, it appears that the public can expect the analyst to reveal details of a new price model and/or data series driving these frighteningly accurate monthly price predictions.
How long can it last?
The 2017 race peaked in December, when upbeat sentiment peaked at nearly $20,000.