Bitcoin (BTC) can make unhappy traders unhappy, but an upbeat analyst says he is “happy” with a 22% drop in a week.
In its latest social media update, Quantitative Analyst PlanB pointed out that the price drop below $ 48,000 caused BTC / USD to dip below the target set by the stock price model.
The dizzying flow of stocks is set to bring order
Thus, Bitcoin is no longer a “live” stock flow, which has traditionally been a very accurate tool for predicting prices. After trading above the required level, PlanB expressed concern that progress had become inorganic.
He wrote in an interview with The Bitcoin Standard author Seifedin Ammuus, who described his predictions as “startling.”
“I thought for a moment that people were turning the shape upside down, and the supercycle began. Now we are back to normal … like clockwork. ”
BTC / USD spot rate compared to the trajectory of the stock movement towards the current one. Source: PlanB / Twitter
The terms “time” and “supercycle” will be familiar to long-term traders, and they often describe Bitcoin’s relationship to stock flows and current trend characteristics, respectively.
As Cointelegraph reports, the two iterations of the model, Stock to Capacity and Stock to Capacity (S2F) through Assets (S2FX), require different BTC / USD prices of $ 100,000 or $ 288,000 between now and 2024.
PlanB previously stated that they believe Bitcoin will not stop at the $ 100,000 due this year.
“Bitcoins are often very optimistic in a bull market and very pessimistic in a bear market!” Podcast host Stefan Levera responded to Amus.
“I don’t think we are testing this time too.”
The shaking feeling continued
Meanwhile, several factors were the catalyst for the latest round of price losses, including Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures, which now trade below the spot rate when the downturn begins, and Coinbase’s negative premium.
The latter signals a trend when it is positive, but the opposite – when the Coinbase spot rate is lower than other Binance exchange rates – is also true.
The reversal of the negativity coincided with a number of large sell orders on Coinbase, each of which caused a short-term decline in the spot price of the order book.
Coinbase order book with sales and lower prices. Source: Josh Olshevich / Twitter
As a sign that irrational sentiment has not left the market, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the greedy zone, despite falling to monthly lows, although it still indicates that the reset in sentiment has not yet begun.
During the first full recession of around $ 65,000, Bitcoin saw massive sales.