Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded to a fresh low of $ 45,550 on January 5 as analysts patiently waited for “pressure” to create new volatility.
1 hour light chart BTC / USD (bit print). Source: TradingView
Analysts estimate the likelihood of a “fake” at $ 40,000.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC / USD is back to the previous day’s levels of around $ 47,000 on Binance at the time of writing.
The frequent falls failed to confuse market participants, who now turned to the possibility of a sudden move up or down in the coming weeks. They said on Tuesday that there is no volatility in the derivatives markets with fixed funding rates and record open interest rates.
“I think by the end of the month we will be under pressure of volatility,” analyst William Clemente predicted in some comments on the Bitcoin Bollinger Bands chart.
A popular indicator that Clemente has recognized as one of his “favorite” tools, Bollinger Bands use two standard deviation bands around the bitcoin spot price to gauge the likelihood of volatility.
BTC / USD with annotated Bollinger Bands chart. Source: William Clemente / Twitter
However, this week the question was whether the move would rise or fall.
“If we get the same setup at the end of July and the start drops to 40 seconds of pressure, I will definitely be a buyer there,” Clemente added during a discussion on expectations.
Another post revealed a possible reason for the $ 45,550 drop – a trader’s unsuccessful attempt to close the lows and subsequent buybacks.
Bitcoin volatility chart. Source: Coinglass
red herring candles
Meanwhile, those looking for growth opportunities are paying attention to macroeconomic factors. Inflation, which was higher than expected, has not fully reacted to Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin Exchange Balances Return To All-Time Lows As Bitcoin Withdrawals Resume In January
“In terms of timing, in the short term we will continue to have an upward movement,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest update for Telegram subscribers.
“When we look at the 10-year breakeven inflation rate (which has historically been highly correlated with BTC), there has been a significant difference since late December … a trend towards 60,000.”
Inflation signals are expected next week with the CPI data for December.
“BTC never looked like this when it ended its bull cycle. ALDRI, since its inception, has continued a more optimistic galaxy on Tuesday.
“It always drops sharply without much improvement.”
Galaxy has seen periods of consolidation following price surges throughout Bitcoin’s history, concluding that the $ 69,000 peak in November may not logically represent multi-year highs.
“We are in a phase of consolidation ahead of the next strong up move,” he added.