Bitcoin (BTC) should now cost $ 18,000 – or the S&P 500 will crash, says an analyst with a model that forecasts a $ 288,000 BTC price.
In a series of tweets on June 17, PlanB, the creator of assets that were traded from stock to stock and from stock to stock, emphasized the link between the largest cryptocurrency and the stock market.
Bitcoin vs. Standard & Poor’s 500: Something must be presented
According to PlanB, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are linked and complementary, with the R Square value for the pair of 95%.
This significant connection indicates that Bitcoin, as a dependent variable, is very vulnerable to movements on the S&P 500.
PlanB concluded that today’s S&P 500 level means a $ 18,000 BTC price, marking the events in March, when Bitcoin fell according to stocks and then rebounded. The only alternative is a fall in the stock market.
“This is consistent with the S2FX model: $ 288,000 BTC in S2F56 -> implies a $ 4,300 S&P,” continued another section of the tweets.
Inventory for predicting the flow of Bitcoin pricing dynamics is based on the number of “new” currencies coming into circulation in relation to today’s exchange rates.
Given that the Bitcoin exchange rate is unchanged regardless of the volume of mining, the influx of reserves suggests that by 2024 – the next half of Bitcoin – the price of BTC / USD will reach $ 288,000 or more.
Does bitcoin look like a leverage center?
While PlanB indicated that the relationship was not new to Bitcoin, the reminder came just in time, the same week Bitcoin again showed a tendency to follow the stock move.
He said the situation is complicated by measures related to coronaviruses, such as quantitative easing, leading to inflation in the money supply, as well as the strengthening of both stocks and bitcoins.
At the same time, stock markets are experiencing increasing interference in the form of artificial competition from central banks buying worthless shares.
This has raised doubts among commentators indicating that the bullish trend in recent months has been triggered by a correction – possibly in just two weeks.
Thus, Bitcoin remains very far from the “separation” of all powers.
“Yes, that means that BTC is not an associated asset. And as I said on the twitter account in September 2019: “The real test is stress. “I think we had a Corona test: it looks like the BTC is irrelevant,” says another comment from PlanB.
“In fact, it looks like BTC has benefited from S&P worth 416 times (with a 99% stop loss).”