According to one analyst, the stochastic pattern leaves the door open for a 189% BTC price gain against Bitcoin’s current all-time high.
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One analyst says there is “well-constructed” evidence, suggesting its next all-time high will top $200,000.
In a January 27 tweet, popular Twitter commenter Trader Tardigrade, also known as Allen, also revealed $70,000 as the next possible bear market bottom.
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For many, BTC price action is still tied to bitcoin’s four-year half-cycle. The resulting price model provides one “all-time high year” in every four, with 2025 next in line.
It will be a year before bitcoin’s block grant is halved, and after that, Allen argues, the path will open for a whopping $200,000.
That price tag is created by analyzing Bitcoin’s stochastic oscillator, which synchronizes with the highs and lows of the cycle in BTC/USD. Currently, the indicator is printing its latest trough, and if history is a guide, price behavior will follow.
A stochastic oscillator is a volatility tool, which compares closing prices to historical averages.
Allen summarized alongside an illustrative chart, “Bitcoin’s well-designed structure with stochastic behavior suggests that the next ATH will be at 200K, the next bottom will be at 70K
BTC/USD Annotated Chart. Source: Merchant Tardigrade/Twitter
Responses to the post revealed a familiar disagreement about bitcoin’s future prospects in terms of the U.S. dollar.
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However, $200,000 may seem modest to some long-term market participants, with that level only 189% higher than the current all-time high from November 2021
The consensus believes that the range of BTC investment returns will decrease in percentage terms over time, with each cycle where long-term volatility will cool.
Planby is eyeing the next $32,000 BTC price
Meanwhile, similarly optimistic in the current environment is Planby, the analyst responsible for the controversial stock-to-flow family of BTC price models.
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Bitcoin’s behavior in January marked a crucial turning point, he believes, pointing to various series matrices as evidence of recovery.
The latest includes the realized return, which tracks the total profit for the currency spent.
“The returns realized just positively pop! Retailers are now taking profits (green) instead of cutting losses (blue).. big difference,” PlanB noted in the chart.
PlanB added this week that bitcoin’s next short-term target could be $32,000, also based on realized price data.
Bitcoin Realization Return Chart. Source: Planby/Twitter
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