The new data shows how pro traders are positioned as the BTC price continues to face resistance at $21,000.
Bitcoin is its name
BTC is a resource
tickers to the ground
has remained above $10,000 for nine days, but worse than traditional markets has left traders questioning whether support will hold.
On November 3, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 75 basis points to 3%, the largest continuous increase since 1989, and risks a fall in the long run increased as the Monetary Policy Committee managed inflationary pressures as a result of the crisis.
The U.K. the finance minister noted that its recent growth and inflation projections present a “very challenging” economic outlook. The committee report added that “higher energy prices and better monetary conditions are weighing on spending,” putting unfavorable pressure on the jobs announcement.
U.S. The Federal Reserve also raised interest rates in Nov. 2, the fourth consecutive rise, bringing rates to their highest levels since January 2008. A tightening of conservatism from central banks may partly explain why during which Bitcoin failed to breach the $21,000 barrier on Oct. 29 , down 4.5% since then.
Let’s look at product metrics to better understand how professional traders are currently positioned in the market.
Options traders are less bullish
A 25% delta skew is a telltale sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for bullish or bearish protection.
In bear markets, options investors pay higher odds for a price drop, so the tilt indicator rises over 10%. On the other hand, rising markets tend to drive a tilt indicator below -10%, which means downside put options are discounted.
Bitcoin 60-day options have a 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas
The delta slope remained above the 10% threshold as of October 26, indicating that option traders are likely to provide little downside protection. A more balanced scenario emerged, but the $10,000 endurance test in Oct. 29 expired. it was not enough to instill hope in option traders.
Currently, the 60-day delta tilt is at 6%, so whalers and market makers are analyzing similar odds and price dumps. However, some reports show less confidence as BTC approaches the $20,000 support.
Leverage buyers ignored the recent rally
The long-to-short metric excludes outliers that would be based solely on option markets. It also collects data on exchange clients’ positions on-site, permanent and quarterly futures contracts, thereby providing useful information on how professional traders position themselves.
Sometimes there are methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should look at variables, not absolute numbers.
Exchanges’ major Ether traders long to low ratio. Source: Coinglass
Although Bitcoin rallied 9% between Oct. 22 and Oct. 29, professional traders slightly reduced their leveraged long positions, according to long-to-short indicator.
For example, the Binance trader ratio improved after starting at 1.25, but then finished the period below its initial level of 1.22. Meanwhile, Huobi showed a slight decline towards longer-term lows, with the indicator moving from 1.03 to 1.00 in the seven days to 29 October.
On crypto exchange OKX, the metric dropped slightly from 1.01 in Oct. 22 to 0.94 on Oct. 29. This means that, on average, traders were not confident enough to add leverage to a bullish level.
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These two derivative metrics — options skew and long to short — suggest a 4.5% Bitcoin price correction from the $21,000 test in Oct. 29. was supported by a moderate level of mistrust from customers leverage.
A more optimistic view would shift the 60-day delta tilt into negative territory and push the long-to-short ratio to higher levels. It’s important to note that traders b