Choosing a $ 80,000 Bitcoin call option for June doesn’t seem outrageous given BTC’s upbeat performance in recent weeks. This wasn’t the case a few months ago when BTC peaked at $ 42,000 on January 8th and then dropped to $ 30,000.
A 150% rise potential was needed at the time, up from $ 32,000 on Jan.26, and it seemed a long way off. Thus, $ 80,000 BTC Call (Buy) options are traded on Deribit at $ 2,240, or 0.07 BTC.
Less than two months later, when BTC hit $ 61,700 on March 13th, BTC itself was at $ 0.15, or $ 9,255. That’s a threefold increase in less than seven weeks. Keep in mind that despite the 93% rally to $ 61,700, a potential 30% increase is needed to reach the $ 80,000 strike.
Despite the recent spike in BTC, the implied probability (delta) is currently 39%. The price of a call option has also increased due to the change in Bitcoin’s volatility, as sellers will demand a greater premium for taking risks in uncertain markets.
Extreme price fluctuations, regardless of direction, increase volatility and unexpected news from the mainstream media usually push the index higher.
Notice how BTC’s volatility has increased from 4% in January to 5% today. This event is particularly optimistic for call buyers. Even if the BTC price is the same, the option price will rise accordingly.
The choices opportunities should not be taken literally
The value of the options also depends greatly on their expiration date. The same $ 80,000 call could be deemed useless two days before its due date. Therefore, traders should not get too caught up in the implied probability of a choice (delta).
For now, the $ 80k June call might seem distant due to Delta’s 39% and the fact that Bitcoin has risen 43% in the past 100 days.
However, traders often consider buying long-term “impossible” options, as those who were brave enough to opt for a BTC price increase of 150% to $ 32,000 in January will likely be very pleased with the results.