Bitcoin (BTC) is enjoying what some are calling a bear market rally and has surged 20% in July, but the price action remains confusing for analysts.
As the July monthly close approaches, the Puell multiplier has left its bottom line, leading to hopes that the worst losses may be in the past.
Boyle made several attempts to consolidate penetration
Puell Multiple is one of the most popular on-chain Bitcoin metrics. It measures the value of Bitcoin mined on a given day compared to the value of those mined in the past 365 days.
The resulting multiplier is used to determine whether a day’s coins are particularly high or low relative to the year’s average. From that, miner profitability can be inferred, along with more general conclusions about how overbought or oversold the market is.
After hitting levels that traditionally accompany aggregate price bottoms, Puell Multiple now aims for a higher – something traditionally seen at the start of aggregate price upward trends.
“Based on historical data, the breakout from this area was accompanied by a bullish momentum gain in the price chart,” Grizzly, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in a company’s “Quicktake” market update on July 25.
Multiple urine chart (screenshot). Source: LookIntoBitcoin
The multiplier is not the only signal flashing green in current conditions. As Cointelegraph reported, the accumulation trends among scammers also indicate that an overall bottom is already in place.
“Unprecedented Macroeconomic Conditions”
After its sudden rebound in the second half of this month, Bitcoin is now close to six-week highs and far from a new macro low.
Related: Bitcoin Futures Data Shows ‘Improved’ Mood Despite 31% GBTC Premium
With sentiment out of its “fear” territory, market watchers are pointing to unique phenomena that continue to make the 2022 bear market extremely difficult to predict with any certainty.
In another “Quicktake” research piece, CryptoQuant notes that even price trendlines are not working as usual this time.
In particular, BTC/USD has crossed the achieved price level several times in recent weeks, something that has not happened in previous bear markets.
The achieved price is the average at which the Bitcoin supply last moved, and is currently just under $22,000.
CryptoQuant explained: “Realized price refers to market bottoms in previous cycles”:
“Importantly, the price of Bitcoin has not exceeded the achieved price limit over the last two periods (134 days in 2018 and 7 days in 2020). However, since June 13, it has crossed this level back and forth three times, demonstrating the uniqueness of this cycle due to Unprecedented macroeconomic conditions.
Check bitcoin price chart. Source: Glassnode
These conditions, Cointelegraph reported, have come in the form of the highest levels of US inflation in forty years, higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, and more recently signs that the US economy is entering a recession.
In addition to the achieved price, meanwhile, Bitcoin has formed an unusual relationship with the 200-week moving average (MA) in this bear market.
While it is usually held as support with brief dips below, BTC/USD has managed to flip the 200-week moving average into resistance for the first time in 2022. It is currently at around $22,800, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show.