October 2022 has yet to prove itself as analysts “want” to predict Bitcoin price volatility for November.
starts the last week of “Uptober” in a strong average mood as the trading range is held to fill all trading areas.
After a welcome breakout attempt, BTC/USD has remained tied to a tight corridor for weeks now.
Some of the lowest volatility in history means Bitcoin has found a temporary role as a stablecoin, even some of the major fiat currencies are more volatile right now.
However, the longer the status quo continues, the more convinced commentators are that a major turnaround is coming.
This week is as good as any other, they argue: macroeconomic data, geopolitical instability, and classic volatility around the monthly close are all factors at play when it comes to putting an end to a decidedly dull bitcoin market.
The Bulls have a lot of work ahead of them to make sure such a breakup is put to rest. Multi-week trading ranges offer stiff resistance, while behind the scenes miners suggest a capitulation could catch everyone by surprise sooner rather than later.
Cointelegraph takes a closer look at the current market setup and highlights five things to watch out for when tracking BTC’s price action this week.
Highest weekly close since early September
Bitcoin offered some interesting price action at the weekly close on Oct 23, BTC/USD saw its largest “green” hourly candle in days before rallying to $19,700.
A pullback was already underway at the end, which nonetheless managed to give Bitcoin its highest level since early September at around $19,580, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show.
BTC/USD 1-week candle (bit stamp). Source: TradingView
Optimism accompanied the move that dissipated on Oct. 24 to leave Bitcoin more or less where it was before.
For Michael van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading company Eight, the time has come to say goodbye to Rangebound BTC.
“Bitcoin is still in this area,” he told Twitter followers the day before:
“Next week is a big one with all the events making it almost inevitable that we break out of the range. I look at this last resistance. It has to break and then the party can start.”
Order book data told a similar story. Analysis of trader behavior on major Binance exchange Marketunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, highlights whales draining liquidity from the established price broker.
“Liquidity has been removed from the range, or at least significantly reduced,” he summarized, adding that “options ($100k~$1M) are being sold.”
Annotated chart of BTC/USD (Binance) order book. Source: Marketunn/Twitter
Material indicators tracking changes in order book liquidity further signaled that the resistance level corresponding to Bitcoin’s old all-time high from 2017 had softened.
“The first retest of the top of 2017 failed, but the sell wall that formed resistance at that level has spread on a stairway up,” he explained just before the weekly close.
Annotated chart of BTC/USD (Binance) order book. Source: Material Indicators / Twitter
Meanwhile, popular trader and analyst Jackis predicted a “wild” November for Bitcoin, though he did not indicate whether the move would be up or down.
“Bitcoin price has found an equilibrium around 19K. After a long equalizer, there always comes a time of shift,” he wrote over the weekend:
“Look for a long period of accepting prices above or below 19.5K/18.5K and position yourself accordingly.”
The Fed and the ECB in the spotlight in the run-up to the decision to raise interest rates
Van de Poppe’s promise of a “big” week in terms of macroeconomic events is likely to come true on October 28 with the release of the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index for September.
Although traditionally not having as much of an impact on the crypto markets as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the PCE is still coming to a head this time around.
The following week will see the Federal Reserve meeting to decide on interest rate increases based on specific data inputs including PCE and CPI.
The market is currently overwhelmingly expecting another 75 basis point hike, keeping pressure on equities.