On November 10, the value of Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $ 69,000. The news may benefit non-inflation assets, but some securities investors traded directly for the Bitcoin Exchange (ETF) on November 12 against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). .
Bitcoin / USD exchange rate on Coinbase. Source: TradingView
While ETF applications are expected to be rejected, the reasons given by the manager may be a concern for some investors. The US SEC has shown its inability to avoid market volatility in the Bitcoin market due to poor transaction management and major trades based on Tether (USDT) stablecoin.
Exploring the broader market structure is very relevant, especially since investors are following meetings held by the US Federal Reserve. Regardless of the size of the next Fed bond roll and asset repurchase plan, Bitcoin groups have been following the US Treasury output for the past 12 months.
FTX (orange, left) vs. Bitcoin / USD in US 10-year Treasury (blue, right). Source: TradingView
Strong bonds show how some Federal Monetary Policy deals with risky assets, including Bitcoin. Similarly, the decline in exports in the last three weeks from 1.64 to 1.43 is partly due to the weakness seen in the crypto market.
Of course, there are some issues with the game, for example, the November 26 market delay is based on concerns about the new COVID-19 variant. In the stock market context, a Bitcoin price of less than $ 48,000 gives investors full control over TC 755 million BTC on Friday.
Bitcoin options included free profits on December 17th. Source: Coinglass.com
At first glance, the $ 470 million call option (for sale) did not exceed 64,285 million sets (for sale) of 1.64 devices, but the 1.64 share was fraudulent, with a 14% decline in prices since November 30th. Most bets.
If the price of Bitcoin drops below $ 49,000 by 8:00 UTC on December 17, only 28 million worth of calling options will be available during the expiration date. In short, Bitcoin is not the right price to buy over $ 49,000 if traded at that price.
farms are enjoying Bitcoin on less than $ 57,000
Here are three possible issues of 755 million in Friday options. Inequality in every aspect is the advantage of theory. In other words, depending on the fall in prices, the number of calls (buy) and contract (sale) is activated:
Between 45,000 and $ 47,000: Call 110 vs. gallon 2,400. The maximum yielding option is 105 million.
Between $ 47,000 and $ 48,000: 280 calls vs. 1,900 gallons. The total assets valued for the bears reached $ 75 million.
Between $ 48,000 and $ 50,000: 1,190 calls vs. 1,130 gallons. Good results are matched between calls and options.
This raw information considers the call options used for risky gambling and maintains options specifically for the average business. However, this rather than simplicity ignores complex investment strategies.
For example, traders can sell stock options, getting bitcoin (BTC) effectively exposed above a certain price. But, unfortunately, there is no easy way to measure this effect.
Bulls need $ 48,000 or more to balance their weight
The only way bulls will survive the December 17 disaster is to keep Bitcoin above $ 48,000. However, if the current short-term negative trend wins, the bear could easily push the current 4% price to 48,500 and the Bitcoin price could rise to $ 105 if it is less than $ 47,000.
Currently, market data is not good for published options (sales), thus providing more opportunities for negative pressure.
The opinions and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Cointelegraph. Malzelin K.