With the heavily anticipated live IPO for Coinbase expected next month, options traders appear to be betting that Bitcoin will once again rise to all-time highs in the coming weeks.
On March 24, founders of crypto analyst Glassnode tweeted data indicating that peer-to-peer sellers of Deribit cryptocurrency derivatives were downloading contracts that would expire on April 30 at a ransom price of $ 80,000.
Contracts were purchased at a face value of 4,000 Bitcoins, which aim to have a total price higher than any other repurchase price by at least 50%.
If the price drops below $ 80,000 by the end of April, the contracts will expire, indicating a high level of traders’ conviction that the bitcoin markets are far from full.
However, probability estimates based on market data for the April 30th decade indicate that there is only 6.19% chance that BTC will exceed $ 80,000 as positions expire.
The high volume was also focused on around $ 120,000 buyback contracts, which means that some traders believe that the bitcoin price will double in the next five weeks. Skew estimates that the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $ 100,000 by April 30 is only 2.15%.
But since many options traders open positions on multiple contracts with different strike prices, some traders who are betting at $ 80,000 or $ 120,000 may not expect the prices to be that high.
Skews data shows that contracts as of April 30 are currently the third most popular options trader with an open interest currently at a face value of 38700 BTC.
On June 21, it took second place with opening nominal interest values of 42,300 BTC, and contracts expiring 117,900 BTC, or $ 6 billion USD, on March 26th.
Although the institutional derivatives trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange entered the bitcoin options sector in January 2020, Deribit continues to dominate trading volume.
Skew estimates that 91% of BTC options contracts traded in the past 24 hours have gone to Deribit, followed by Bit.com at 5%, OKEx at 2%, and CME and LedgerX at roughly 1% each.