Bitcoin (BTC) begins another week in a precarious position near $20,000 before the new macro turmoil.
After posting its biggest weekly gain since March, the largest cryptocurrency is struggling to hold its recently recovered levels.
Major resistance areas remain high, and with inflation data due later in the week, the coming days could be worrisome for risky assets everywhere.
Meanwhile, crypto market sentiment is showing signs of recovery, and on-chain metrics continue to confirm what should be the latest macro price for Bitcoin.
With conflicting data all around, Cointelegraph takes a deeper look at potential market movers for the week ahead.
The 200-week moving average causes headaches
At around $20,850, the weekly close on June 10 was hardly anything special for BTC/USD, but the pair still managed its best seven-day growth in several months.
After ending on Sunday a full $1,600 rise from its position at the start of the week, bitcoin closed off with an advance not seen since March.
However, the success did not last, as the hours following the weekly closing turned negative. At the time of writing, BTC/USD is targeting $20,400, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Bitcoin’s ability to hold current levels may be key in setting the mood at this time, as the easing of global equities will provide an opportunity for cryptocurrencies to erase some of their losses from recent months.
Commentators, including the trading group Decentrader, are looking at the weekly chart with interest.
Others were less enthusiastic, noting that BTC/USD still made another close below the basic 200-week moving average (WMA) at around $22,500.
In previous bear markets, the 200 WMA acted as a general support level, with Bitcoin dropping briefly below it to set macro bottoms. However, this time seems to be different, as $22,500 has been absent from the chart for a month.
Zooming out, meanwhile, the popular trader TechDev has called for a more optimistic outlook for the rest of 2022.
By the end of the year, he argued over the weekend, restoring more important WMAs should lead to Bitcoin ending its “re-accumulation phase” altogether.
“BTC 32-35K Flip Possibly Confirms End of Reaccumulation and + Correction This Year,” TechDev told Twitter followers.
“imo is more likely to happen once both 100W and 50W EMA are in this range. 100W is currently at 34.8K and 50W is at 37.2K.”
Elsewhere, the ongoing divestiture of assets from crypto lending platform Celsius has added to selling pressure.
The dollar is back relentlessly as Asian markets decline
Asian stocks headed lower on July 11, as news of social unrest in China clouded the start of the macroeconomic week.
As protesters demanded the release of frozen funds amid a scandal involving both bank officials and local authorities accused of misusing COVID-19 tracking apps, markets felt the pressure.
At the time of writing, the Shanghai Composite is down 1.5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down 3.1%.
Europe did somewhat better with modest growth for the FTSE 100 and the German DAX, with the US still opening.