Bitcoin (BTC) battled to reclaim $20,000 on July 12 on Wall Street as the US dollar pared its rally to two-decade highs.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
The rise of the US dollar took a new break
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView revealed a tug of war between buyers and sellers after seven-day lows for BTC/USD.
The intraday losses came from the rampant US Dollar Index (DXY), which reached its highest levels since October 2002 at the expense of risky assets thanks to the inverse correlation.
US Dollar Index (DXY) candlestick chart. Source: TradingView
The subsequent halt in US stocks gave some room to breathe, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both halting losses for the day.
Focusing on the print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on July 13, optimism about the cryptocurrency on shorter time frames was imperceptible.
For the popular Crypto Ed trader and analyst, there was “more pain” for both BTC and stocks.
“There is a very small chance that we will see a double correction towards $24,000 or $25,000,” he predicted in a new video update, analyzing potential Elliott wave moves after bitcoin’s rally to $22,400 last week.
The chances of a major relief were “small”, with the option of a “nuclear detonation” also on the table.
Bitcoin Traders Facing ‘Remarkable Pressure’
For on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, meanwhile, there have already been signs from the market that bitcoin may be in the final part of a bearish cycle.
Related: US inflation data will be ‘messy’ – 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analysts argued that long-term holders – the least likely to give up – were under “significant pressure” to sell.
However, there is still room to turn back if Bitcoin is to repeat the previous bear market behaviour.
It concluded that “the current market structure has many hallmarks of the later phase of a bear market, in which the highest condemnation groups, long-term stockholders and miners are under marked pressure to surrender.”
“Losing supply is now at 44.7%, most of which is carried by a long-term carrier group. However, this is still at a less severe level compared to previous downside cycles.”
Graphs supporting the thesis included the Long-Term Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR), a measure that tracks the average gain or loss of LTH coins spent. LTH addresses are those that hold coins for at least 155 days.
Glassnode noted that “LTH-SOPR is currently trading at 0.67, which indicates that the average LTH spender of their coins is losing 33%.”
Illustrative graph of Long-Run Output Profit Spent Ratio (LTH-SOPR). Source: Glassnode
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