The price of BTC is constrained, but Bitcoin analysts predict a gloomy end to the year for holders of risky assets.

Bitcoin
Bitcoin

tick down
$16,832

starts the week before Christmas with a whimper as a tight trading range brings little joy to BTC bulls.

A weekly close just above $16,700 means that BTC/USD remains without major volatility as it lacks general market direction.

After experiencing erratic trading behavior around recent US macro data, the pair has since returned to an all-too-familiar status quo. What could change?

That’s the question all analysts are asking as markets lag into the holiday season with little supply.

The reality is harsh for the average bitcoin holder – BTC is trading below what it was two years ago and even five years ago. “FUD” is barely tight thanks to the impact of FTX and concerns over Binance.

At the same time, there are signs that the miners are recovering, while the on-chain indicators signal that the time has come for a classic macro price bottom.

Will Bitcoin continue to disappoint in the new year or will the bulls get the Christmas rally they desperately need? Cointelegraph takes a look at the factors driving the next BTC price action.

BTC Spot Price: “Surrender” or “Slow Grind”?
Bitcoin ended the week just under $16,750 and pulled through on December 18 without another bout of volatility.

Even what accompanied US inflation data and comments from the Federal Reserve was short-lived, and BTC/USD has since returned to what is arguably a frustrating status quo.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView backs up this point – since the FTX scandal broke in early November, Bitcoin has seen few notable price movements.

BTC/USD 1 week candlestick chart (Bitstamp). Source: Trading View
So the question for market commentators is what it takes to turn things around, up or down.

In light of the weekly chart’s Fibonacci retracement levels, analytical resource Stockmoney Lizards ventured that BTC/USD is at “key support”.

If the $16,800 area starts to fade, the next one is around $12,500.

Another chart from the weekend compared Bitcoin’s so-called “last washes” in past bear markets. This reinforced the idea that BTC/USD may be almost done “copying” previous macro bottom structures.

BTC/USD chart comparison. Source: Stockmoney Lizards/Twitter
Others think the worst is yet to come for the current cycle. Among them is popular Crypto trader and analyst Tony, who is among those targeting a floor potentially around $10,000.

“So I expect BTC to start forming a bottoming pattern in 2023 at the lower bounds of the range we currently find ourselves in with volume support around $11,000 to $9,000,” a- he reiterated in a Twitter thread over the weekend.

“Whether we capitulate, or if we just try slowly, remains to be seen.”
He added that the post-mass surrender “accumulation phase” would not progress until 2023, when Bitcoin prepares for the next block subsidy halving event.

New US data expected as analysis predicts lower risk assets
After last week’s drama of inflation data and the Fed, it’s safe to say that the coming week will put a bit less pressure on bitcoiners.

However, US gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected in the third quarter and is expected to turn positive after posting a 0.9% decline in the second quarter.

This is significant as the US technically slipped into recession with the second quarter print despite politicians’ best efforts to deny that fiscal conditions were as dire as the data suggested.

However, as market investor Ajay Bagga notes, too much of a GDP inversion would allow the Fed to pursue aggressive rate hikes to rein in inflation – which is undesirable for risky assets in all domains, including crypto.

“The U.S. Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for U.S. real GDP growth (seasonally-adjusted annual rate) for the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.2% on Dec. 9, down from 3.4% December 6,” he wrote in an update last week.

“Very good reading of the GDP a

Source: CoinTelegraph

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